Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle
As a result of work carried out within HYINHEAT, we are pleased to share the peer-reviewed open-access publication “Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle”, published in Environmental Science & Technology. The study was partly carried out with funding from the HYINHEAT project.
Abstract
Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminium industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, their deployment can be significantly delayed by the long lifetimes of existing industrial assets, an effect that is often overlooked in conventional scenarios for the sector.
The study introduces a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model covering global primary aluminium production (smelters) and secondary production (melting furnaces). The model incorporates the lifetime and turnover of industrial assets to provide a more realistic assessment of how quickly low-carbon technologies can penetrate the aluminium sector. The results show that limiting emissions in line with climate targets requires a combination of improved collection and recycling systems, rapid and widespread deployment of low-carbon production technologies, and a fast transition towards low-carbon electricity. The study also highlights the risk of technological lock-in, as installing new conventional production capacity today could constrain future emission reductions or require the premature retirement of industrial assets.
Authors
Moritz Langhorst, Romain Guillaume Billy, Christian Schwotzer, Felix Kaiser, and Daniel Beat Müller
Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
Department for Industrial Furnaces and Heat Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany
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